The Weather

As a change from legal/social issues I thought I’d digress into the Englishman’s favourite topic – the weather!
I’m not sure I agree with Lord Byron when he said,
“The English winter - ending in July, to recommence in August” 
but we are certainly not having much of a summer.

It’s not so long ago that ‘experts’ were predicting the desertification of Great Britain due to the myth of ‘Global Warming’. Indeed the then Environment Secretary, Hilary Benn said, when launching the UK Climate Projections 2009 report (UKCP09):

“By 2080, London will be between 2C and 6C hotter than it is now.
Every part of the UK is likely to be wetter in winter and drier in summer, according to the projections.
Summer rainfall could decrease by about 20% in the south of England and in Yorkshire and Humberside, by the middle of the century”.

In 1996 the BBC weatherman Bill Giles said, with absolute certainty that within 20 years, ie by 2016, just 4 short years hence, Dundee would be as balmy as Berkshire, France would be virtually uninhabitable as the Dordogne turned into a desert and the English Midlands would become an American mid-west-style dust bowl.

I wonder what they think now, in the middle of the wettest summer on record?

Of course, it’s still ‘global warming’ that’s to blame, only now it’s for the rain; funny how quickly these ‘experts’ can turn their coats in an attempt to justify their discredited cause.

The only reliable prediction of the UK’s weather I’ve ever found, and even it has been beaten of late, is that of Alexander Buchan, a Scottish meteorologist who pioneered research into recurring weather spells during the 19th century.

For what it’s worth, I repeat it below:
(The periods in bold type denote better known spells)

Early Jan - Stormy, variable temperatures
Mid to late Jan - Mild followed by stormy spell, possibly snow
Early Feb - Stormy with variable temperatures
Feb. 7-14 - Buchan cold period
Early Mar – Stormy, 'Comes in like a lion'
Mar. 22-26 - Springlike with 'borrowed days from April'
Early April - 'Blackthorn winter' with 'borrowed days from March'
April 11/14 - Buchan cold period
Late April - Warmer period followed by showers
May 1/15 - Changeable
May 11/14 - Buchan cold period, (Includes the Ice Saints' festival 11 to 13th).
Late May - warmer spell, 'Crown of Spring'
Early June - Thundery spell.
June 15/18 - Warmest period of month
June 29/July 4 - Buchan cold period
July 12/15 - Buchan warm period, hottest days/warmest nights of month.
Aug. 6/11 - Buchan cold period
Aug. 12/15 - Warmest period of month
Sept. 3/12 - Warm period
Sept. 21/30 - Stormy period, Equinoctial gales
Early-mid Oct - Quiet period, ('St. Luke's summer' on or before St Luke's Day, October 18th)
Nov. 1/5 - Stormy period
Nov. 6/13 - Buchan cold period
Nov. 23/26 - Stormy period
Dec. 7/14 – Cold spell
Dec. 15/21 - Stormy period
Dec. 23/26 - Mild period
Late Dec - Stormy period.

I’ve been guided by Buchan for some years now and give or take a day or two either side have found it to be remarkably accurate, certainly as good if not better than the Met Office’s long-range forecasts, even with their multi-million pound computers!

It Baffles Me

Motoring court again today, and something I found difficult to understand.
Five motorists, all caught driving a little over the 30mph limit, nothing too serious, 35 or 36mph and all had been offered attendance on a speed awareness course as an alternative to either a Fixed Penalty or a prosecution.

Now such courses involve a half-day attendance and cost the same as the fixed penalty, but incur no criminal record and  no penalty point endorsement on a driving licence - a 'no-brainer' one might think.

All five declined the offer,  failed to pay the alternative fixed penalty, and made no response to the summons which naturally followed. Consequentially, all five where fined substantial amounts and had their licences endorsed with 3 penalty points.

But why?

I wish someone would explain to me the logic of their thinking for I confess, it baffles me.

Crime and Soft Justice

A report published today by the think-tank Civitas
read it here

says that the detection of crime by the police, the imposition of longer jail terms by the courts, and that criminals should serve more of their sentences than at present, would result in a substantial decrease in crime.
Now as a statement of the bleeding obvious this takes some beating although predictably the Ministry of Justice has dismissed the report as 'flawed', no surprise there then.

It's unlikely that the current Minister of Justice, Ken Clarke, will lose any sleep over the report, or change his liberal view, and it seems equally unlikely that soft judges such as His Honour Judge Gareth Hawkesworth will suddenly have a Damascene Conversion.

This is the judge who last week blamed 'society' for the actions of a 14 year old boy who raped a 5 year old girl, and handed him a community sentence, rather than a custodial one.
Mind, that's par for the course for this soft judge who last year declined to jail 26 year old Turon Ali who had groomed a 14 year old girl for sex as he was, 'a young man unable to control his sexual urges', which means he was, and presumably still is, a danger to any female he takes a fancy to, reason enough to teach him the consequences of his actions by the imposition of a substantial jail term.

One question I was asked when I applied to be a Magistrate was did I have any problems sending people to jail when necessary, it seems judges don't have to give a similar assurance........pity!