The Weather

As a change from legal/social issues I thought I’d digress into the Englishman’s favourite topic – the weather!
I’m not sure I agree with Lord Byron when he said,
“The English winter - ending in July, to recommence in August” 
but we are certainly not having much of a summer.

It’s not so long ago that ‘experts’ were predicting the desertification of Great Britain due to the myth of ‘Global Warming’. Indeed the then Environment Secretary, Hilary Benn said, when launching the UK Climate Projections 2009 report (UKCP09):

“By 2080, London will be between 2C and 6C hotter than it is now.
Every part of the UK is likely to be wetter in winter and drier in summer, according to the projections.
Summer rainfall could decrease by about 20% in the south of England and in Yorkshire and Humberside, by the middle of the century”.

In 1996 the BBC weatherman Bill Giles said, with absolute certainty that within 20 years, ie by 2016, just 4 short years hence, Dundee would be as balmy as Berkshire, France would be virtually uninhabitable as the Dordogne turned into a desert and the English Midlands would become an American mid-west-style dust bowl.

I wonder what they think now, in the middle of the wettest summer on record?

Of course, it’s still ‘global warming’ that’s to blame, only now it’s for the rain; funny how quickly these ‘experts’ can turn their coats in an attempt to justify their discredited cause.

The only reliable prediction of the UK’s weather I’ve ever found, and even it has been beaten of late, is that of Alexander Buchan, a Scottish meteorologist who pioneered research into recurring weather spells during the 19th century.

For what it’s worth, I repeat it below:
(The periods in bold type denote better known spells)

Early Jan - Stormy, variable temperatures
Mid to late Jan - Mild followed by stormy spell, possibly snow
Early Feb - Stormy with variable temperatures
Feb. 7-14 - Buchan cold period
Early Mar – Stormy, 'Comes in like a lion'
Mar. 22-26 - Springlike with 'borrowed days from April'
Early April - 'Blackthorn winter' with 'borrowed days from March'
April 11/14 - Buchan cold period
Late April - Warmer period followed by showers
May 1/15 - Changeable
May 11/14 - Buchan cold period, (Includes the Ice Saints' festival 11 to 13th).
Late May - warmer spell, 'Crown of Spring'
Early June - Thundery spell.
June 15/18 - Warmest period of month
June 29/July 4 - Buchan cold period
July 12/15 - Buchan warm period, hottest days/warmest nights of month.
Aug. 6/11 - Buchan cold period
Aug. 12/15 - Warmest period of month
Sept. 3/12 - Warm period
Sept. 21/30 - Stormy period, Equinoctial gales
Early-mid Oct - Quiet period, ('St. Luke's summer' on or before St Luke's Day, October 18th)
Nov. 1/5 - Stormy period
Nov. 6/13 - Buchan cold period
Nov. 23/26 - Stormy period
Dec. 7/14 – Cold spell
Dec. 15/21 - Stormy period
Dec. 23/26 - Mild period
Late Dec - Stormy period.

I’ve been guided by Buchan for some years now and give or take a day or two either side have found it to be remarkably accurate, certainly as good if not better than the Met Office’s long-range forecasts, even with their multi-million pound computers!